ARPA Update as of July 3, 2025

By: Russ Kamp, CEO, Ryan ALM, Inc.

Welcome to the Summer doldrums. The PBGC’s ARPA activity appears to have been impacted by the holiday-shortened week. We hope that you and your family had a terrific Fourth of July weekend.

There isn’t a whole lot to discuss about last week. There were no applications received as the PBGC’s e-Filing portal remains temporarily closed. No applications were approved or denied, and there were no pension funds looking to be added to a very crowded waiting list.

However, there was one fund, Trucking Employees of North Jersey Welfare Fund, Inc. Pension Plan, that repaid a portion of the Special Financial Assistance (SFA) received earlier. The $7.7 million repayment represents 0.99% of the $774.3 million grant. The Truckers’ fund is the 55th fund to repay a portion of the SFA grant. There are four funds that had no census errors. It was estimated that roughly 60 pension funds had been granted SFA prior to the PBGC’s use of the Social Security Master Death file. In total, $229.4 million has been recouped from $50.9 billion in grants (0.45%).

In other ARPA news, eight funds currently on the waitlist have elected their measurement lock-in date. As a reminder, the measurement date refers to the date on which a plan submits a lock-in application to PBGC. This date is crucial because it sets and permanently establishes the plan’s SFA measurement date and base data for its eventual SFA application, regardless of when the full application is later submitted. Specifically, the lock-in application fixes: 1) the non-SFA and SFA interest rates, 2) the SFA measurement date, and 3) participant census data. Five of the funds chose March 31, 2025, while the other three selected April 30, 2025, as the measurement date for their pension plans.

According to the ARPA legislation, the PBGC is prohibited from accepting initial applications after December 31, 2025. They may receive and review revised applications until December 31, 2026. They currently have about 70 plans on the waitlist, in addition to the 46 that are under review or have been withdrawn. It will take a tremendous effort to process these initial applications prior to the legislation’s deadline.

Don’t Engage in a Cash Sweep – Dividends Matter!

By: Russ Kamp, CEO, Ryan ALM, Inc.

We’ve already shared with you the importance of dividends to the long-term return of the S&P 500 by referencing studies conducted by Guinness Global Investors.

According to the Guinness study, which was last updated as of April 2020, the contribution to return of the S&P 500 from dividends and dividends reinvested for 10-year periods since 1940 was a robust 47% down insignificantly from 48% a decade ago. Extending the measurement period to 20 years from 1940 forward highlights an incredible 57% contribution to the total return of the S&P 500 from dividends. Importantly, this study is on the entirety of the S&P 500, not just those companies that pay dividends. If the universe only included dividend payers, this analysis would reveal strikingly greater contributions since roughly 100 S&P 500 companies are not currently paying a dividend.

As if this study isn’t enough to convince you of the importance of dividends to the long-term return of stocks, Glen Eagle Trading put out an email today that referenced a recent Wall Street Journal article, titled “Why Investors Are Right to Love Dividends”. The article highlighted the fact that recent studies show S&P 500 dividend-paying stocks returned 9.2% annually over the past 50 years, which is more than double the 4.3% return of non-dividend payers, with lower volatility. Then there is this study by Ned Davis which broke down the contribution of dividends for the 47-years ending December 21, 2019.

Once again, it becomes abundantly clear why investing in companies paying dividends is a terrific long-term strategy. It also begs the question, why do many plan sponsors and their advisors regularly “sweep” income from their equity managers to meet ongoing benefits and expenses? In doing so, instead of structuring the pension plan to have a liquidity bucket to meet those obligations, this activity diminishes the potential long-term contribution to equities from dividends. As longer-term returns are reduced, greater contributions are needed to make up the shortfall compounding the problem.

Please don’t sweep interest and dividend income or capital distributions for that matter, establish an asset allocation that has a dedicated liquidity bucket that uses cash flow matching to secure and fund ongoing benefits and expenses. The remainder of the assets not deployed in the liquidity bucket go into a growth bucket that benefits from the passage of time.

Segal: Benefits of Pension De-Risking

By: Russ Kamp, CEO, Ryan ALM, Inc.

Jason Russell and Seth Almaliah, Segal, have co-authored an article titled, “Benefits of Pension De-Risking and Why Now is the Right Time”. Yes! We, at Ryan ALM, agree that there are significant benefits to de-risking a pension plan and we absolutely agree that NOW is the right time to engage in that activity.

In their article they mention that the current interest rate environment is providing opportunities to de-risk that plan sponsors haven’t seen in more than two decades. In addition to the current rate environment, they reflect on the fact that many pension plans are now “mature” defining that stage as a point where the number of retired lives and terminated vested participants is greater than the active population. They also equate mature plans to one’s that have negative cash flow, where benefits and expenses eclipse contributions. In a negative cash flow environment, market corrections can be more painful as assets must be sold to meet ongoing payments locking in losses, as a result.

They continue by referencing four “risk reducing” strategies, including: 1) reducing Investment Volatility, 2) liability immunization, 3) short-term, cash flow matching, and 4) pension risk transfers. Not surprisingly, we have some thoughts about each.

  1. Reducing investment volatility – Segal suggests in this strategy that plan sponsors simply reduce risk by just shifting assets to “high-quality” fixed income. Yes, the annual standard deviation of an investment grade bond portfolio with a duration similar to that of the BB Aggregate would have a lower volatility than equities, but it continues to have great uncertainty since bond performance is driven primarily by interest rates. Who knows where rates are going in this environment?
  2. Liability Immunization – The article mentions that some plan sponsors are taking advantage of the higher rate environment by “immunizing” a portion of the plan’s liabilities. They describe the process as a dedicated portfolio of high-quality bonds matched to cover a portion of the projected benefits. They mentioned that this strategy tends to be long-term in nature. They also mention that because it is “longer-term” it carries more default risk. Finally, they mentioned that this strategy may lose some appeal because of the inverted yield curve presently observed. Let me comment: 1) Immunization is neither a long-term strategy or a short-term strategy. The percentage of liabilities “covered” is a function of multiple factors, 2) yes, immunization or cash flow matching’s one concern when using corporate bonds is default risk. According to S&P, the default rate for IG bonds is 0.18% for the last 40-years, and 3) bond math tells us that the longer the maturity and the higher the yield, the lower the cost. Depending on the length of the assignment, the current inverted yield curve would not provide a constraint on this process. Finally, CFM is dependent on the actuary’s forecasts of contributions, benefits, and expenses. Any change in those forecasts must be reflected in the portfolio. As such, CFM is a dynamic process.
  3. Short-term, cash flow matching CFM is the same as immunization, whether short-term or not. Yes, it is very popular strategy for multiemployer plans that received Special Financial Assistance (SFA) under ARPA for obvious reasons. It is a strategy that SECURES the promised benefits at both low cost and with prudent risk. It maximizes the benefit coverage period with the least uncertainty.
  4. Pension Risk Transfers (PRT) – In a PRT, the plan sponsor transfers a portion of the liabilities, if not all of them, to an insurance company. This is the ultimate risk reduction strategy for the plan sponsor, but is it best for the participant? They do point out that reducing a portion of the liabilities will also reduce the PBGC premiums. But, does it impact the union’s ability to retain and attract their workers?

We believe that every DB pension plan should engage in CFM. The benefits are impressive from dramatically improving liquidity, to buying time for the growth (non-CFM bonds) assets, to eliminating interest rate risk for those assets engage in CFM, to helping to stabilize contributions and more. Focusing 100% of the assets on a performance objective only guarantees volatility. It is time to adopt a new strategy before markets once again behave badly. Don’t waste this wonderful rate environment.

Thank you, Segal, for your thoughtful piece.

U.S. $ Decline and the Impact on Inflation

By: Russ Kamp, CEO, Ryan ALM, Inc.

As I was contemplating my next blog post, I took a look at how many of my previous >1,625+ posts mentioned currencies, and specifically the U.S. $. NEVER had I written about the U.S. $ other than referencing the fact that we enjoy the benefit of a fiat currency. I did mention Bitcoin and other cryptos, but stated that I didn’t believe that they were currencies and still don’t. Why mention them now? Well, the U.S. $ has been falling relative to nearly all currencies for most of 2025. According to the WSJ’s Dollar Index (BUXX), the $ has fallen by 8.5% for the first half of 2025.

Relative to the Euro, the $ has fallen nearly 14% and the trend isn’t much better against the Pound (-9.6%) and the Yen (-8.7%). So, what are the implications for the U.S. given the weakening currency? First, the cost of imports rises. When the $ loses value, it costs more to buy goods and services from abroad. The likely outcome is that the increased costs get passed onto the consumer, who is already dealing with the implications from uncertain tariff policies.

Yes, exports become cheaper, which would hopefully increase demand for our goods, but the heightened demand could also lead to greater demand for U.S. workers in order to meet that demand leading to rising wages (great), but that is also potentially inflationary.

What have we seen so far? Well, first quarter’s GDP (-0.5%) reflected an increase in imports spurred on by fear of price increases due to the potential for tariffs. Q2’25 is currently forecasted to be 2.5% according to the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model, as U.S. imports have fallen. According to the BLS, import prices have risen in 4 of 5 months in 2025, with March’s sharp decline the only outlier.

The potential inflationary impact from rising costs could lead to higher U.S. interest rates, which have been swinging back and forth depending on the day of the week and the news cycle. Furthermore, there is fear that the proposed “Big Beautiful Bill” could also drive rates higher due to the potential increase in the federal deficit by nearly $5 trillion due to the stimulative nature of deficits. Obviously, higher U.S rates are great for individual savers, but they don’t help bonds as principal values fall.

We recommend that plan sponsors and their advisors use bonds for the cash flows (interest and principal) and not as a performance driver. Use the fixed income exposure as a liquidity bucket designed to meet monthly benefits and expenses through the use of Cash Flow Matching (CFM), which will orchestrate a careful match of asset cash flows funding the projected liabilities cash flows. The remaining assets (alpha bucket) now benefit from time, as the investment horizon is extended.

Price increases on imports due to a weakening $ can impact U.S. inflation, but there are other factors, too. I’ve already mentioned tariffs and wage growth, but there other factors, including productivity and global supply chains. Some of these drivers may take more time to hash out. There are many uncertainties that could potentially impact markets, why not bring an element of certainty to your pension fund through CFM.

There Is No “Standard” Exposure

By: Russ Kamp, CEO, Ryan ALM, Inc.

I recently attended a public pension conference in which the following question was asked: What is the appropriate weighting to emerging markets? There may be an average exposure that results from a review of all public fund data, but there is NO such thing as an appropriate or standard weight. Given that every defined benefit plan has its own unique liabilities, funded status, ability to contribute, etc., how could there be a standard exposure to any asset class, let alone emerging markets.

I’m sure that this question originates through the belief that the pension objective is to achieve a return on asset (ROA) assumption. That there is some magic combination of assets and weightings that will enable the pension plan to achieve the return target. However, as regular readers of this blog know, we, at Ryan ALM, think that the primary objective when managing a DB pension plan is NOT a return objective but it is to SECURE the promised benefits at a reasonable cost and with prudent risk.

Pursuing a performance (return) objective guarantees volatility, as the annual standard deviation for a pension plan is roughly 12%-15%, but not success in meeting the funding objective. Refocusing on the liabilities secures, through cash flow matching, the monthly promises from the first month out as far as the allocation will cover. Through this process the necessary liquidity is provided each month, while also extending the investing horizon for the remainder of the assets that are no longer needed as a source of liquidity. We refer to these residual assets as the alpha or growth assets, that now can grow unencumbered.

This growth bucket can be invested almost anyway that you want. You can decide to just buy the S&P 500 index at low fees or construct a more intricate asset allocation with exposures and weightings of your choice. There is no one size fits all solution. We do suggest that the better the funded ratio/status of your plan, the greater the allocation to the liquidity assets. If your plan is less well funded today, start with a more modest CFM portfolio, and expand it as funding levels improve. In any case, you are bringing an element of certainty to what has been historically a very uncertain process.

So, please remember that every DB plan is unique. Don’t let anyone tell you that your fund needs to have X% in asset class A or Y% in asset class B. Securing the benefits should be the most important decision. How you build the alpha portfolio will be a function of so many other factors related specifically to your plan.

ARPA Update as of June 20, 2025

By: Russ Kamp, CEO, Ryan ALM, Inc.

Despite the chaotic nature of our markets and geopolitics, it is comforting that I can report weekly on the progress being made by the PBGC implementing the critical ARPA legislation. That is not to say, that the 2nd Circuit’s recent ruling isn’t creating a bit of chaos, too.

Regarding last week’s activity, the PBGC’s efiling portal must have been wide open, as they accepted initial applications from 5 pension plans residing on the waitlist. The PBGC will now have 120-days to act on these submissions.

There were no applications approved, denied, or withdrawn last week, but that isn’t to say that the PBGC rested on its laurels. There were two more plans that repaid a portion of the SFA received, as census errors were corrected. International Association of Machinists Motor City Pension Plan and Western States Office and Professional Employees Pension Fund repaid 1.61% and 1.08% of the SFA, respectively. In total, 57 plans have “settled” with the PBGC, including four funds that had no census errors. To date, $219 million was repaid from grants exceeding $48 billion or 0.45% of the grant.

In other ARPA news, another 16 funds have been added to the waitlist resulting from the 2nd Circuit’s determination that previously terminated plans can seek SFA. We do believe that it will prove beneficial for these plans, but it will stress the resources of the PBGC to meet ARPA imposed deadlines.

Given the highly unpredictable nature of war and tariffs on inflation and U.S interest rates, it isn’t surprising that the U.S. Federal Reserve held the Fed Funds Rate steady last week. We encourage those plans receiving SFA grants to secure the promised benefits through a cash flow matching strategy. Who knows how markets will impact bonds and stocks for the remainder of the year.

$6 billion – Is That All?

By: Russ Kamp, CEO, Ryan ALM, Inc.

A recent ruling by the 2nd Circuit has opened the door for roughly 100+ multiemployer plans to pursue Special Financial Assistance (SFA) that were originally deemed ineligible because the plans had terminated. The PBGC’s inspector general, in a “risk advisory”, has estimated that the cost to provide the SFA to these newly eligible plans could be as much as $6 billion. Is that all? Let’s not focus on the $s, but the number of American workers and their families that this additional expenditure will support.

As I reported last week in my weekly update related to ARPA’s pension reform, the PBGC had denied the application for the Bakery Drivers Local 550 and Industry Pension Fund, a New York-based terminated pension plan, because it had terminated. The plan covered 1,094 participants in 2022 and was 6.3% funded, according to their Form 5500. Regrettably, the plan terminated in 2016 by mass withdrawal after Hostess Brands, Inc., its largest contributor, went bankrupt. However, the court stated, that despite terminating in 2016, the plan “continued to perform audits, conduct valuations, file annual reports, and make payments to more than 1,100 beneficiaries.”

As of June 13, 2025, the PBGC had already received 223 applications for SFA with $73.0 billion approved supporting the retirements for 1.75 million American workers. What an incredible outcome! However, according to the inspector general’s letter, the potential $6 billion in added cost would include $3.5 billion to repay the PBGC’s earlier loans to approximately 91 terminated plans, which was described as a “potential waste”. He went on to state that the potential repayment to the PBGC would be a waste of taxpayer funds due to the positive current and projected financial condition of the multiemployer program. “PBGC’s multiemployer program is in the best financial condition it has been in for many years. PBGC’s 2023 Projections Report states that PBGC’s multiemployer program is projected to ‘likely remain solvent for at least 40 years.’” GREAT!

Perhaps the repayment of $3.5 billion in loans could enable the PBGC to lower the annual premiums on the cost to insure each participant, which might keep some plans from seeking termination due to excessive costs to administer the program. Something needs to be done with private DB plans, too, as those costs per participant are far greater, but that’s a story for another blog post.

As regular readers of this blog know, we’ve celebrated the success of this program since its inception (July 2021). The fact that 1.75 million American workers to date have had their promised benefits secured, and in some cases, restored, is wonderful. Think of the economic impact that receiving and spending a monthly pension check has on their communities. Furthermore, think about what the cost would have been for each of these folks had the Federal government been needed to provide social services. None of these workers/retirees did anything wrong, yet they bore the brunt.

The estimated $6 billion in additional “investment” in American workers is a drop in the bucket relative to the annual budget deficit, which has been running from $1-$2 trillion annually. Restoring and supporting the earned retirement benefits is the right thing to do.

Why? – Revisited

By: Russ Kamp, CEO, Ryan ALM, Inc.

My 44-year career in the investment industry has been focused on DB pension plans, in roles as both a consultant and an investment manager (I’ve also served as a trustee). I’ve engaged in 000s of conversations related to the management of DB pension plans covering the good, the bad, and even the ugly! I’ve published more than 1,600 mostly pension-related posts on this blog with the specific goal to provide education. I hope that some of my insights have proven useful. Managing a DB pension plan, whether a private, public, or a multiemployer plan is challenging. As a result, I’ve always felt that it was important to challenge the status quo with the aim to help protect and preserve DB pensions for all.

Unfortunately, I continue to think that many aspects of pension management are wrong – sorry. Here are some of the concerns:

  • Why do we have two different accounting standards (FASB and GASB) in the U.S. for valuing pension liabilities?
  • Why does it make sense to value liabilities at a rate (ROA) that can’t be purchased to defease pension liabilities in this interest rate environment?
  • Why do we continue to create an asset allocation framework that only guarantees volatility and not success?
  • Why do we think that the pension objective is a return objective (ROA) when it is the liabilities (benefits) that need to be funded and secured?
  • Why haven’t we realized that plowing tons of plan assets into an asset class/strategy will negatively impact future returns?
  • Why are we willing to pay ridiculous sums of money in asset management fees with no guaranteed outcome?
  • Why is liquidity to meet benefits an afterthought until it becomes a major issue?
  • Why does it make sense that two plans with wildly different funded ratios have the same ROA?
  • Why are plan sponsors willing to live with interest rate risk in the core bond allocations?
  • Why do we think that placing <5% in any asset class is going to make a difference on the long-term success of that plan?
  • Why do we think that moving small percentages of assets among a variety of strategies is meaningful?
  • Why do we think that having a funded ratio of 80% is a successful outcome?
  • Why are we incapable of rethinking the management of pensions with the goal to bring an element of certainty to the process, especially given how humans hate uncertainty?

WHY, WHY, WHY?

If some of these observations resonate with you, and you are as confused as I am with our current approach to DB pension management, try cash flow matching (CFM) a portion of your plan. With CFM you’ll get a product that SECURES the promised benefits at low cost and with prudent risk. You will have a carefully constructed liquidity bucket to meet benefits and expenses when needed – no forced selling in challenging market environments. Importantly, your investing horizon will be extended for the growth (alpha) assets that haven’t been used to defease liabilities. We know that by “buying time” (extending the investment horizon) one dramatically improves the probability of a successful outcome.

Furthermore, your pension plan’s funded status will be stabilized for that portion of the assets that uses CFM. This is a dynamic asset allocation process that should respond to improvement in the plan’s funded status. Lastly, you will be happy to sit back because you’ve SECURED the near-term liquidity needed to fund the promises and just watch the highly uncertain markets unfold knowing that you don’t have to do anything except sleep very well at night.

Ryan ALM: Problem/Solution

By: Ronald J. Ryan, CFA, Chairman, Ryan ALM, Inc.

Problem:  Pension Liabilities… MIA

Solution:  Cash Flow Matching (CFM)

The true objective of a pension is to secure and fully fund benefits (and expenses) in a cost-efficient manner with prudent risk. Although funding liabilities (benefits and expenses (B+E)) is the pension objective, it is hard to find liabilities in anything that pertains to pension assets. Asset allocation is more focused on achieving a ROA (return on assets target return), and performance measurement compares assets versus assets, as the asset index benchmarks are void of any liability growth calculations. If you outperform your index benchmark does that mean asset growth exceeded liability growth? Perhaps NOT.

Pension liabilities behave like bonds since their discount rate is most similar to a zero-coupon bond yield curve (especially ASC 715 discount rates which are a AA corporate yield curve). Yes, public and multiemployer pension plans use the ROA as the discount rate to price their liabilities but even then it is not shown in any performance measurement reports. In fact, what shows up in the CAFR annual report is the GASB requirement of an interest rate sensitivity test by moving the discount rate up and down 100 basis points to determine the volatility of the present value of liabilities and the funded ratio. But a total return or growth rate comparison of assets versus liabilities seems to be MIA.

Ryan ALM solves this problem through our asset liability management (ALM) suite of synergistic products:

  1. Custom Liability Index (CLI) – The management of assets should actually start with liabilities. In reality, assets need to fund NET liabilities defined as (benefits + expenses) – contributions. Contributions are the first source to fund B+E. Assets must fund the net or residual. This is never calculated so assets start with little or no knowledge of what there job really is. Moreover, B+E are monthly payments, which are also not calculated, as the actuary provides an annual update. The CLI performs all of these calculations including total return and interest rate sensitivity as monthly reports.
  1. ASC 715 Discount Rates – Ryan ALM is one of very few vendors who provide ASC 715 discount rates, and we’ve done so since FAS 158 was enacted (2006). We provide a zero-coupon yield curve of AA corporate bonds as a monthly excel file for our subscribers including a Big Four accounting firm and several actuarial firms.
  1. Liability Beta Portfolio™ (LBP) – The LBP is the proprietary cash flow matching model of Ryan ALM. The LBP is a portfolio of investment grade bonds whose cash flows match and fully fund the monthly liability cash flows of B+E. Our LBP has many benefits including reducing funding costs by about 2% per year (20% for 1-10 year liabilities). The intrinsic value of bonds is the certainty of their cash flows. That is why bonds have always been chosen as the assets for cash flow matching or dedication since the 1970s. We believe that bonds are not performance or growth assets but liquidity assets. By installing a LBP, pensions can remove a cash sweep from the growth assets, which negatively impact their growth rates. We urge pension plan sponsors to use bonds for their cash flow value and transfer the bond allocation from a total return focus to a liquidity allocation. Moreover, the Ryan ALM LBP product is skewed to A/BBB+ corporate bonds which should outyield the traditional bond manager who is usually managing versus an index which is heavily skewed to Treasuries and higher rated securities that are much lower in yield. The LBP should enhance the probability of achieving the ROA by the extra yield advantage (usually 75 to 100 basis points). The LBP should also reduce the volatility of the funded ratio and contributions. In fact, it should help reduce contribution cost by the extra yield enhancement. 

For more info on the Ryan ALM product line, please contact Russ Kamp at  rkamp@ryanalm.com.

The Power of Bond Math

By: Ronald J. Ryan, CFA, Chairman, Ryan ALM, Inc.

Bonds are the only asset class with the certainty of its cash flows. That is why bonds have always been used to cash flow match and defease liabilities. Given this certainty, bonds provide a secure way to reduce the cost to fund liabilities. This benefit is not as transparent or valued as one might think. If you could save 20% to 50% on almost anything, most people would jump at the opportunity? But when it comes to pre-funding pension liabilities there seems to be a hesitation to capture this prudent benefit.

Bond math tells us that the higher the yield and the longer the maturity… the lower the cost. Usually there is a positive sloping yield curve such that when you extend maturity you pick up yield. What may not be evident is the fact that extending maturity is the best way to reduce costs even if yields were not increased. Here are examples of what it would cost to fund a $100,000 liability payment with a bond(s) whose maturity matches the liability payment date:

Cost savings is measured as the difference between Cost and the liability payment of $100k. As you can see, extending maturity produces a much greater cost reduction than an increase in yield. More importantly, the cost reduction is significant no matter what maturity you invest at, even if yields are unchanged. The cost savings range from 21.9% (5-years) to 38.1% (10-years) and 62.8% (20-years) with rates unchanged. Why wouldn’t a pension want to reduce funding costs by 21.9% to 62.8% with certainty instead of using bonds for a volatile and uncertain total return objective? Given the large asset bases in many pensions, such a funding cost reduction should be a primary budget consideration.

Ryan ALM is a leader in Cash Flow Matching (CFM) through our proprietary Liability Beta Portfolio™ (LBP) model. We believe that the intrinsic value in bonds is the certainty of their cash flows. We urge pensions to transfer their fixed income allocation from a total return objective versus a generic market index (whose cash flows look nothing like the clients’ liability cash flows) to a CFM strategy. The benefits are numerous:

Secures benefits for time horizon LBP is funding (1-10 years)

Buys time for alpha assets to grow unencumbered 

Reduces Funding costs (roughly 2% per year)

Reduces Volatility of Funded Ratio/Status

Reduces Volatility of Contribution costs

Outyields active bond management

Mitigates Interest Rate Risk 

Low fee = 15 bps

For more info on our Cash Flow Matching model (LBP) or a free analysis to highlight what CFM can do for your plan, please contact Russ Kamp, CEO at rkamp@ryanalm.com