“More Needs To Be Done!” – Do You Think?

By: Russ Kamp, Managing Director, Ryan ALM, Inc.

This post is the 1,500th on this blog! I hope that you’ve found our insights useful. We’ve certainly appreciated the feedback – comments, questions, and likes – throughout the years. A lot of good debate has flowed from the ideas that we have expressed and we hope that it continues. The purpose of this blog is to provide education to those engaged in the pension/retirement industry. We have an incredible responsibility to millions of American workers who are counting on us to help provide a dignified retirement. A goal that is becoming more challenging every day.

As stated numerous times, doing the same-old-same-old is not working. How do we know? Just look at the surveys that regularly appear in our industry’s media outlets. Here is one from MissionSquare Research Institute done in collaboration with Greenwald Research. The survey reached a nationally representative sample of 1,009 state and local government workers between September 12 and October 4. What they found is upsetting, if not surprising. According to the research, “81% are concerned they won’t have enough money to last throughout retirement, and 78% doubt they’ll have enough to live comfortably during their golden years.”

Some of the other findings in the survey also tell a sad story. In fact, 73% of respondents are concerned they won’t be able to retire on time, while the same number are unsure whether they’ll have sufficient emergency savings. How terrible. The part about being able to retire “on time” is not often in the workers control wether because of health and the ability to continue to do the required task or as a result of other plans by their employer. Amazingly, public sector workers believe that their current retirement situation is better than those in the private sector. Wow, if that isn’t telling of the crisis unfolding in this country.

Given these results, it shouldn’t be shocking that unions are seeking a return of DB plans as the primary retirement vehicle. We know that asking untrained individuals to fund, manage, and then disburse a “benefit” through a defined contribution plan is poor policy. We’ve seen the results and they are horrid, with median balances for all age groups being significantly below the level needed to have any kind of retirement. Currently, the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers are on strike at Boeing, and a major sticking point is the union’s desire to see a reopening of Boeing’s frozen DB plan.

We’ve also recently seen the UAW and ILA memberships seek access to DB plans. It shouldn’t be a shock given the ineffectiveness of DC plans that were once considered supplemental to pensions. Again, asking the American worker to fund a DC offering with little to no disposable income, investment acumen, or a crystal ball to help with longevity concerns is just foolish. Yes, there is more to do, much more! It is time to realize that DB plans are the only true retirement vehicle and one that helps retain and attract talented workers who aren’t easily replaced. Wake up before the crisis deepens and everyone suffers.

ARPA Update as of October 25, 2024

By: Russ Kamp, Managing Director, Ryan ALM, Inc.

Welcome to the last week of October. Like many of us, I can’t wait to see my children’s and grandchildren’s costumes on Thursday. The weather in NJ will be more like June than the end of October. Enjoy!

With regard to the PBGC’s effort to implement the ARPA pension legislation, last week’s activity was rather muted. I’m happy to report that we had one plan’s application approved, as I.B.E.W. Pacific Coast Pension Fund will receive $75.5 million in SFA and interest for 3,318 plan participants. This brings the number of approved applications to 95 and the total award of SFA to $68.8 billion. There are still 107 applications that are in the queue to eventually (hopefully) receive special financial assistance, with 64 yet to file an initial application.

Also, during the past week, we had the Laborers’ Local No. 265 Pension Plan withdraw its application. That plan is seeking $55.6 million for 1,460 members of its plan. This was the initial application for this fund which had been filed on July 11, 2024. There has been a total of 117 applications filed and withdrawn throughout the ARPA implementation. Some funds have seen multiple applications withdrawn and resubmitted.

Given the limited activity last week, it isn’t surprising to learn that the eFiling Portal remains temporarily closed. There is still much to accomplish with this legislation and time, although not currently an issue, will become one should this process linger beyond 2025.

Lastly, the recent move up in US Treasury rates bodes well for those plans receiving SFA and wanting to use cash flow matching to secure the promised benefits. Ryan ALM is always willing to produce an initial analysis on what can be achieved through CFM in terms of a coverage period. Don’t hesitate to reach out to us.

ARPA Update as of October 18, 2024

By: Russ Kamp, Managing Director, Ryan ALM, Inc.

Major League baseball finally has the last two competitors for this year’s World Series. As a Mets’ fan, I would have appreciated a different outcome, but it was a surprisingly good season for the team from Flushing! Good luck to the Yankees and Dodgers.

With regard to ARPA and the PBGC’s effort to implement this important pension legislation, last week provided just a couple of updates for us to digest. There were no new applications submitted, approved or denied. The PBGC’s eFiling Portal remains temporarily closed at this time. There were also no new systems seeking to be added to the waitlist at this time.

There was one application withdrawn. PA Local 47 Bricklayers and Allied Craftsmen Pension Plan, a non-priority group plan, withdrew its initial application last week that was seeking $8.3 million for the 296 participants in the plan.

The last bit of activity to discuss relates to the repayment of excess SFA as a result of census corrections. Teamsters Local Union No. 52 Pension Fund became the 22nd plan to repay a portion of their SFA received. In the case of Local No. 52, they repaid $1.1 million, which represented 1.15% of their grant. The largest repayment to date has been the $126 million repaid by Central States (0.35% of grant). In terms of percentages, the Milk Industry Office Employees Pension Trust Fund returned 2.36% of their grant marking the high watermark, while Local Union No. 466 Painters, Decorators and Paperhangers Pension Plan, was asked to return only 0.11% of their reward.

Finally, US interest rates have risen significantly since the Fed’s first rate cut on September 18th, as highlighted in the graph below. The higher rates reduce the present value of those future benefit payments and helps to stretch the coverage period provided by the SFA.

ARPA Update as of September 27, 2024

By: Russ Kamp, Managing Director, Ryan ALM, Inc.

Welcome to the last update for September 2024. Let’s hope that today brings at least one Mets’ win in Atlanta. It would mark quite the turnaround from where this team was on June 1st.

With regard to the PBGC’s implementation of the ARPA legislation, the efiling portal still remains temporarily closed. As a result, new applications have not been forthcoming. There are presently 22 applications with the PBGC. Sixteen of those must be acted on by November 30th.

Activity was fairly limited during the past week. There were no applications approved or denied. There was one application withdrawn. Bricklayers Pension Fund of West Virginia withdrew the initial application seeking $1.2 million for the 170 plan participants. In addition, 3 funds repaid a portion of the SFA grant received. Mid-Jersey Trucking Industry and Teamsters Local 701 Pension and Annuity Fund, the Pension Plan of the Bakery Drivers and Salesmen Local 194 and Industry Pension Fund, and the Building Material Drivers Local 436 Pension Plan each returned a portion of the overfunding due to incorrect census data. In total, the three plans returned $2.7 million from the $348.3 million received in SFA or 0.78%. To date, 17 plans have returned $142.3 million or 0.36% of the grant monies received. Lastly, there were no additional plans seeking to be added to the waitlist, which remains at 68.

Please don’t hesitate to reach out to us with any questions that you might have regarding investment strategies for the SFA assets. We are always willing to model your plan’s forecasted cash flows so that various implementations can be reviewed.

ARPA Update as of September 13, 2024

By: Russ Kamp, Managing Director, Ryan ALM, Inc.

Will it be 25 or 50? That is the big question on nearly every investor’s mind this week. Will the Federal Open Market Committee cut rates by 0.25% or 0.5% on Wednesday. Any cut would mark the first such move by the Federal Reserve since 2020. Despite the uncertainty as to the Fed’s potential action, the PBGC was undaunted as they had another busy week implementing the ARPA pension legislation.

There is plenty to highlight from last week’s activity, as three funds received approval of their applications seeking Special Financial Assistance (SFA), one fund repaid a portion of its SFA grant, while another withdrew its initial application. There were no applications filed this past week as the PBGC’s filing portal is temporarily closed. Multiemployer plans seeking SFA may still “request to be placed on the waiting list in accordance with the instructions in PBGC guidance.”

The three funds receiving SFA were Teamsters Local Union No. 469 Pension Plan, Pension Plan Private Sanitation Union, Local 813 I.B. of T., and Local Union No. 226 International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers Open End Pension Trust Fund. These funds were each non-Priority Group members and the applications were the initial filings for each. In total, these pension plans will receive $238.3 million in SFA and interest for just over 6k members.

Local 1783 I.B.E.W. Pension Plan, an Armonk, NY non-Priority Group member, withdrew its initial application. They were seeking $42.2 million in SFA for the 850 plan participants. The Alaska Iron Workers Pension Plan received approval for its application in January 2023. They have just agreed to return $384,111.74 from the $53.5 million received in February 2023, as a result of a census error. This is the fourteenth plan to return a portion of the SFA due to overpayment.

As one can see, the PBGC has approved 92 of a potential 202 applications (45.5%) at this time for a total of $68 billion in SFA, including interest FA loan repayments. As a reminder, plans receiving SFA proceeds must keep those separated from the plan’s current fund (legacy assets). Despite the recent decline in US interest rates, defeasing benefits and expenses as far into the future as the SFA grant will cover is still the proper course of action. I produced a post last Friday on the correct approach to cash flow matching for those considering such a strategy.

ARPA Update as of July 26, 2024

By: Russ Kamp, Managing Director, Ryan ALM, Inc.

The “dog days” of summer don’t seem to be impacting the activity level at the PBGC, as we had a plethora of activity last week. As mentioned on the PBGC website, the e-filing website is open, but limited. “The e-Filing Portal is open only to plans at the top of the waiting list that have been notified by PBGC that they may submit their applications. Applications from any other plans will not be accepted at this time.” That’s interesting, as there are still 16 pension plans in Priority Groups 1-6 that have potential applications that are not currently being reviewed. Are they excluded, too?

During the week, three funds that had been on the waitlist submitted applications, including, Local 810 Affiliated Pension Plan, the Upstate New York Engineers Pension Fund, and the Alaska Plumbing and Pipefitting Industry Pension Plan. They are seeking a total of $282.1 million for the 9,620 plan participants. This is each plan’s initial submission. As always, the PBGC has 120 from the filing date to conclude the review.

In other news, two plans received approval of their applications, including the Pension Plan of the Moving Picture Machine Operators Union Local 306, a Priority Group 5 member, and the New England Teamsters Pension Plan, that was a Priority Group 6 member. The Moving Picture machinists will receive $20.7 million to support its 542 members, while the NE Teamsters get a whopping $5.7 billion for just over 72k participants. With these latest approvals, the PBGC has now granted through ARPA $67.7 billion in Special Financial Assistance (SFA) that will support the financial futures of 1.34 million American retirees.

On July 23, the Production Workers Pension Plan was added to the waitlist, becoming the 115th member on that list, with 47 having seen some activity (approved, under review, or withdrawn) regarding their applications. In other news, there were no applications denied or withdrawn. Furthermore, none of the previous SFA recipients were asked to repay a portion of the grant due to overpayment. Have a great week, and don’t hesitate to reach out to us if we can provide any assistance to you as you think through your investment strategy as it relates to the SFA grant.

ARPA Update as of July 5, 2024

By: Russ Kamp, Managing Director, Ryan ALM, Inc.

We hope that you had an enjoyable long holiday weekend. We once again provide you with an update on ARPA and the PBGC’s implementation of this key pension legislation. Following a busy June, in which nine multiemployer plans received Special Financial Assistance (SFA) approval for $6.4 billion for roughly 233k participants, the PBGC’s application portal has been reopened and three applications were filed during the past week. PA Local 47 Bricklayers and Allied Craftsmen Pension Plan, Local 111 Pension Plan, and Bricklayers Pension Fund of West Virginia have each filed its initial application seeking SFA. In total, these three smallish plans are requesting $25.7 million for 2,066 participants.

In other developments, there was little obvious activity during the holiday shortened week, as there were no plans receiving approval for SFA, no applications that were denied or withdrawn, and no plans agreed to repay excess SFA grant money. Finally, there were no additional plans added to the waitlist at this time. Currently, 37 non-priority plans, from a list of 114, have seen some action on their application – approved, submitted, or withdrawn.

There remains great uncertainty within the US economy. Is the US labor market weakening? Is inflation truly under control? With the recent fall in Q2’24 GDP growth estimates from 3.1% to 1.5% by the Atlanta Fed (GDPNow model), will the Fed finally have the information that they’ve been seeking to reduce US interest rates? Will these trends begin to weigh on US corporate profits? If so, elevated valuations for US stocks could begin to pressure US stock prices, which seem to have been immune to bad news in the last couple of years. It may be time to rebalance or reduce any exposure to stocks within the SFA bucket and lock in these higher US rates.

ARPA Update as of June 21, 2024

By: Russ Kamp, Managing Director, Ryan ALM, Inc.

I suspect (can only hope) that you woke up yesterday morning just itching to see what news I was going to share as it related to ARPA and the PBGC’s implementation of that critical legislation. Sorry to have disappointed you. Like most everyone else, my day just got away from me.

However, I do have some exciting news to share which might just make up for the disappointment of having to wait one day to get the weekly update. As we’ve been writing, the PBGC was running up against many application review and determination deadlines this month. As a result, they have announced that five funds had their applications approved for Special Financial Assistance (SFA). Terrific!

The five funds are the Retail, Wholesale and Department Store International Union and Industry Pension Plan, the Bakery and Confectionery Union and Industry International Pension Fund, United Food and Commercial Workers Unions and Employers Midwest Pension Plan, GCIU-Employer Retirement Benefit Plan, and the Pacific Coast Shipyards Pension Plan. These funds represent three Priority Group 6 members and two that came through the non-priority waitlist. In total, they will receive nearly $5.8 billion in SFA for just over 200k in plan participants. The Kansas Construction Trades Open End Pension Trust Fund is the last application that needs action in June. There are four that have July deadlines.

There were no new applications submitted to the PBGC, as the portal remains temporarily closed, no applications denied or withdrawn, and none of the plans that have received SFA were forced to return a portion of the proceeds as a result of overpayment identified through a death audit of the plan’s population.

Fortunately, the US interest rate environment and current economic conditions remain favorable for those potential SFA recipients to SECURE promised benefits far into the future without subjecting the grant proceeds to unnecessary risk associated with a non-cash flow matching assignment. Remember that the sequencing of returns is a critical variable when contemplating an asset allocation framework. If your SFA portfolio suffers significant losses in the early years, you negatively impact the coverage period. We’ll be happy to model your plan’s liabilities for free. Don’t hesitate to reach out to us if we can be a resource for you.

ARPA Update as of June 14, 2024

By: Russ Kamp, Managing Director, Ryan ALM, Inc.

We hope that you enjoyed a wonderful Father’s Day. I’m blessed to still have my Dad with us (95 years young). In addition, I have two sons and two sons-in-law who are wonderful fathers. It was a terrific day!

Regarding ARPA and the PBGC’s implementation of that critical pension legislation, there was some activity during the previous week. However, the filing portal remains temporarily closed for those plans still seeking relief through the SFA grants. That said, there are still 17 applications that are currently being reviewed with 6 of those nearing the 120 deadline for action. Those six plans are seeking nearly $5.5 billion in SFA. As a result, the rest of June is going to be busy for the PBGC.

The Pension Plan for the Arizona Bricklayers’ Pension Trust Fund received approval for its application. They will receive $10.7 million to protect the pensions for the 666 members of the plan. This non-priority plan received approval on their initial application. In other news, there were no applications either denied or withdrawn. However, the Graphic Communications Conference of the International Brotherhood of Teamsters National Pension Fund joined Central States as the only other plan to repay excess SFA as a result of a death audit. In this case, they are repaying just over $8 million.

Have a great week. Don’t hesitate to reach out to us if you like to learn more about cash flow matching and how it can be used to extend and protect the SFA grant assets so vital to ensuring that the pension promises are met for your participants.

ARPA Update as of June 7, 2024

By: Russ Kamp, Managing Director, Ryan ALM, Inc.

We are pleased to provide you with another ARPA update. The PBGC approved the applications for two New Jersey funds seeking Special Financial Assistance (SFA). CWA/ITU Negotiated Pension Plan and the Pension Plan of Local 102, both non-priority funds, will receive $545.6 million and $12.5 million, respectively, in order to ensure that their 24,796 participants will receive the promised benefits.

Unfortunately, there isn’t much else to report, as there were no new applications submitted, and the queue remains at 18. There were no applications rejected or withdrawn and no pension systems were added to the waitlist, with 32 of 114 having had some activity (submissions, withdrawals, and approvals) to date. Central States remains the only plan to pay back excess SFA proceeds.

The 18 plans that are currently under review carry some heft, as they are collectively seeking >$13 billion in SFA for nearly 370K participants. Seven of those plans have application “deadlines” in June. As a reminder, the PBGC has 120 days to act on an application once it has been submitted. Fortunately, US interest rates remain elevated providing plan sponsors with the opportunity to use cash flow matching to secure the SFA assets and significantly reduce the risk associated with a traditional asset allocation. Sponsors would be wise to use the legacy assets to assume a more traditional asset allocation since those assets now have the benefit of an extended investing horizon.

We hope that you have a wonderful week.