Tag Archives: db-pension

01.29.26
by

What Topics Would You Pick?

By: Russ Kamp, CEO, Ryan ALM, Inc.

I’m hopefully attending the FPPTA conference in Orlando beginning on Sunday, February 1, 2026. My attendance will be very much dependent on the path of the next winter storm takes as it migrates up the East coast. I’ve been asked to speak on a couple of occasions at this event for which I’m always very appreciative to be given the opportunity to share my perspectives on a variety of pension subjects.

The first opportunity is straightforward in that I will be addressing the importance of cash flow in managing defined benefit pension plans. In my opinion, there is nothing more important than generating and managing cash flow to meet ongoing plan liabilities of benefits and expenses. As pension plans have pursued a more aggressive asset allocation utilizing significantly more alternatives – private equity, private credit, real estate infrastructure, etc. – liquidity has become more challenging. As a result, some of the strategies that have been adopted to raise the necessary cash flow are not in the best interest of the plans longer term. I’ll be happy to share my thoughts on those issues if you want to reach out to me.

Regarding my second opportunity to share some perspective, I am one of four individuals who were asked to identify three pension related topics for a session called “Around the Pension World Discussion”. There will be six randomly selected topics from the original list of 12 that will be covered in 15-minute increments. It is a really interesting concept, and hopefully as we lead the conversation will get great input from the attendees.

The three topics that I chose are:

  1. Liquidity – it is being challenged through the migration of assets to alternative strategies.
  2. Uncertainty – Human beings hate uncertainty as it has both a physiological and psychological impact on us. Yet little to none of our current practices managing pensions brings certainty.
  3. The Primary Pension objective – managing a DB pension is about securing the promised benefits at a reasonable cost and with prudent risk. It is not a return objective.

Clearly, there are tons of topics covering investments/asset allocation, risk management, governance, actuarial assumptions, plan design, etc. It shouldn’t be surprising why I chose the topics that I did based on my focus on securing pension promises through cash flow matching (CFM). We provide the necessary liquidity to meet those ongoing expenditures, while securing the promises given to the plan participants. In addition, CFM is a “sleep-well-at-night” strategy that brings certainty to the management of pension plans that engage in very uncertain practices.

What topics would you have chosen? Please reply to this post. I’d like to share your topics and the rationale behind choosing them in a follow-up blog. Have a great day!

12.23.24
by

Is Now The Time To Act?

By: Russ Kamp, Managing Director, Ryan ALM, Inc.

Equity market participants were recently reminded of the fact that markets can fall, and unfortunately they usually don’t decline with any kind of notice. The impetus behind the markets’ most recent challenging day was the Fed’s relatively tame forecast for likely interest rate moves in 2025. There is no question in my mind that the nearly 4-decade decline in rates from lofty heights achieved in the early ’80s, when the Fed Funds Rate eclipsed 20%, to the covid-fueled bottom reached in early 2020, when the yield on the 10-year Treasury Note was at 0.5%, made bond returns a lot stronger than anyone’s forecast.

It certainly seemed that the US Federal Reserve provided the security blanket any time there was a wobble in the markets. This action allowed “investors” to keep their collective foot on the gas with little fear. Sure, there were major corrections during that lengthy period, but the Fed was always there to lend a hand and a ton of stimulus that propped up the economy and markets, and ultimately the investment community. As we saw in 2022, the Fed had run out of dry powder and ultimately had to raise US interest rates to stem a vicious inflationary spike. Rates rose rather dramatically, and the result was an equity market, as measured by the S&P 500, that declined 18% for the calendar year. Bonds faired only marginally better as rising rates impacted bond principals creating a collective -12.1% return for the BB Aggregate Index.

As we enter 2025, do we once again have a situation in which the Fed’s ability to reduce rates has been curtailed due to a stronger economy than anticipated? Will the continued strength and massive government stimulus drive inflation and rates higher? According to a blog post from Apollo’c CIO, here are his list of the potential risks and the probabilities:

Risks to global markets in 2025

Interesting that he feels, like we do at Ryan ALM, Inc., that the economy is likely to be stronger than most suspect (#6) leading to higher inflation, rising rates (#7), and a 10-year Treasury Note yield in excess of 5% (#8). That yield is currently at 4.6% (as of 3:06 pm).

For those that might be skeptical, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model is currently forecasting GDP growth for Q4’24 at 3.1% annualized. They have done a wonderful job forecasting quarterly growth rates. Their forecasts have consistently been above the “street’s” and as a result, much more accurate.

In addition, despite the third rate cut by the Federal Reserve at the most recent FOMC meeting of their benchmark Fed Funds Rate (-1.0% since the easing began), interest rates on longer dated maturities have risen quite significantly, as reflected below.

Rising US rates, stronger growth, and greater inflation may just be the formula for a significant contraction in equity valuations, especially given the current level. Be proactive. Reduce risk. Secure the promised benefits. Under no circumstance should you just let your “winnings” ride.