Category Archives: Uncategorized

10.02.15
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Weakening Jobs Growth To Further Pressure DB Plans

Given the news from this morning regarding US job growth (only 142,000 jobs added and revisions down in the previous two months), it would not surprise us to see US interest rates continue to fall.  If in fact this happens, DB plans’ funded ratios and funded status will continue to weaken. As we’ve reported on numerous occasions, plan liabilities, although discounted at the ROA, do not grow at the same rate as assets.

Liability growth has far outpaced asset growth in the last 15 years, and the asset allocation mismatch that exists between a plan’s assets and liabilities continues to be dramatic.  With most everyone expecting interest rates to rise, fixed income exposures have been reduced and bond durations shortened. A combination that continues to weigh on plan performance.

We continue to believe that weak global growth will keep interest rates low for the foreseeable future, and as such, fixed income exposures should be increased and reconfigured to meet near-term liabilities.  I will be discussing this concept / strategy at the upcoming FPPTA conference on Tuesday in Naples, FL.

Plans continue to focus almost exclusively on their fund’s ROA, but the liability side of the equation needs some attention, too, especially given the prospects for continuing global economic weakness.  In this environment, a plan will not close it’s funding gap through outperformance relative to its ROA.

10.01.15
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October 2015 KCS Fireside Chat – Are ETFs as liquid as we assumed?

We are pleased to share with you the latest article in the KCS Fireside Chat series. In this article we once again explore the burgeoning ETF business, but with a particular focus on the trading activity that occurred on August 24th.  As you may recall, the market plummeted at the open (Dow down roughly 1,100 in first five minutes), and the impact on several ETFs was incredible.  We hope that you find the article helpful.  Please don’t hesitate to reach out to us if we can provide any assistance.

Click to access KCSFCOct15.pdf

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09.23.15
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Housing Rental Expense killing DC contributions?

Despite the fact that inflation, as measured by the CPI, seems to be contained, rental expense for housing has jumped significantly in the US during the last decade.  As a country we are moving away from being a home ownership society to one that rents housing, as home ownership is now at its lowest since 1967! Furthermore, the only reason the home ownership rate is as “high” as it is, is due to homeowners in the 65 and over age group. For everyone else, home ownership rates are now the lowest recorded.

Compounding this problem is the fact that US household incomes are 7.2% less than they were in 1999. The lower incomes are being crushed by rising housing costs, medical expenses / insurance and education. Is it no wonder that folks don’t have any additional resources to fund their DC plans? What percentage of the US population really has discretionary income at this time?

According to the “State of the Nation’s Housing” report released by the Center for Housing Studies at Harvard, which showed that while inflation among most products and services may indeed be roughly as the Fed and BLS represent it, when it comes to rent things have never been worse.

According to the report, 2013 marked another year with a record-high number of cost burdened households – those paying more than 30 percent of income for housing. In the United States, 20.7 million renter households (49.0 percent) were cost burdened in 2013.  Alarmingly, 11.2 million (25%) all renter households, had “severe cost burdens, paying more than half of income for housing.” The median US renter household earned $32,700 in 2013 and spent $900 per month on housing costs.

So, do you still believe that the failure to fund defined contribution plans is because we have a population hellbent on consumption? The demise of the DB plan means that a significant percentage of our population will never be able to make adequate contributions (if any) into their retirement plan. The social and economic consequences for our country will be grave.

09.11.15
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Single and Broke In Retirement?

We recently came across a news report that highlighted the fact that “singles” in the U.S. are more likely NOT to have a retirement account. In fact, only 51 percent of unattached people have a retirement savings account, according to a study released Wednesday by Mintel. (Mario Petitti / Chicago Tribune)

The population of single people is rising with almost half of adults today not living with a spouse, according to the U.S. Census. That’s up from about 30 percent in 1967.

“More Americans are staying single longer, and our data shows this trend will hold out for the foreseeable future,” Robyn Kaiserman, Mintel financial services analyst, said in the report.

Regrettably, the percentage of singles that have a retirement account is far less than people who are living with a partner or who are married, the research firm said.

Retirement savings accounts have been set up, in contrast, by 68% of people living with a partner and 84% of married adults.

We, at KCS, suggest that Americans overall need to take retirement more seriously, especially those not in a traditional DB plan.

For participants in defined contribution plans, just 27% contribute the maximum allowed to their plan, and 22% say they contribute only enough to get the employer match.

Whether you are single or not the key to funding a successful retirement is to start saving / investing early in life and be consistent (save with every paycheck). Taking advantage of a matching 401k plan should be a no brainer. Unfortunately, the power of compounding is lost on many people. But, why should that be a surprise? We provide so little financial literacy in our schools!

09.01.15
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KCS September 2015 Fireside Chat – “Happy 80th Birthday”

We are pleased to share with you the latest KCS Fireside Chat article. Social Security has just turned 80, and in this article we explore its origins, operating practices, and importantly, its future. We hope that you find this subject interesting.

Click to access KCSFCSep15.pdf

As a nation we cannot afford to have our seniors living on the precipice of financial ruin. A return to the poor houses of the 20’s and 30’s is absolutely unacceptable. Ideally, we would once again provide a strong pension system that would strengthen the three-legged stool, but until we can resurrect defined benefit pensions for the masses, we better figure out a way to continue to provide, and even enhance, the current Social Security system.

Please don’t hesitate to reach out to us if we can be of any assistance to you. Have a great Labor Day weekend!

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08.24.15
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Markets Giving You The Woolies – UPDATE!

The following is a re-introduction of a concept that we shared with you in June.

I’ve witnessed many market declines during my more than 33 years in the investment industry, and I would be lying if I told you that I called the beginning, end, and ultimate magnitude of any of the sell-offs.  Market declines are part of the investing game.  But just knowing that isn’t enough, as unfortunately, they can have a profound impact on retirement plans and retirement planning, both institutional and individual, as they impact the psyche of the investors.

It is well documented how individuals tend to buy high and sell low. The market crash of 2007 – 2009 drove many individuals out of equities at or near the bottom, and many of those “investors” have kept their allocations to equities below 2007 levels. It hasn’t been that much better for the average institutional investor either.  We are aware of a number of situations (NJ for one) that plowed into expensive, absolute-return product at the bottom of the equity market only to see that portfolio dramatically underperform very inexpensive beta, as the equity markets rallied from the bottom in March 2009.

In some cases, the selling “pressure” was the result of liquidity needs, which lead to the tremendous explosion in the secondary markets for private equity, real estate, etc. in 2009.  The E&F asset allocation model, made so famous by Yale, was the undoing for many retirement plans, as the failure to secure adequate liquidity exacerbated market losses.  Given the heightened fear and volatility in the global markets, are you currently prepared to meet your liquidity needs?

As we’ve discussed within both the Fireside Chats and on the KCS blog, the development of a hybrid asset allocation model geared specifically to your plan’s liabilities, can begin to de-risk your plan, while dramatically improving liquidity.  The introduction of the beta / alpha concept will provide plan sponsors with an inexpensive cash matching strategy that meets near-term benefit needs, while extending the investing horizon for the less liquid investments in your portfolio. By not being forced to sell into the market correction, your investments have a greater chance of rebounding when the market settles.

Traditional asset allocation models subject the entire portfolio to market movements, while the beta / alpha approach only subjects the alpha assets to volatility.  But, since one doesn’t have to sell alpha assets to meet liquidity needs given that the beta portfolio is used for that purpose, the volatility doesn’t matter. Don’t fret about China, Oil and / or emerging markets and the potential implications for the global markets and your plan. Let us help you design an asset allocation that improves liquidity, extends the investment horizon for your alpha assets, and begins to de-risk your plan, as the funded ratio and status improve.

08.03.15
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U.S. $ Strength – An Unwelcomed Guest For U.S. Multinationals

Readers of this blog may recall that in the KCS First Quarter 2015 commentary we wrote;
With regard to the strengthening U.S. dollar versus major currencies, particularly the Euro, we think that U.S. large cap, multi nationals will be particularly challenged as the cost of their exports ratchet up, and competitors import prices make sales domestically more competitive. Could the U.S. dollar reach parity with the Euro? We certainly believe that can happen, as Europe continues its own QE initiative to jump-start economic growth and inflation.
Well, the impact of a strengthening US $ is beginning to be quantified, and as we speculated, corporate earnings are being dinged. In an FT article from August 2nd, it is estimated that the impact on earnings of US multinationals could be significant in 2015.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/ab30e1d4-37c2-11e5-b05b-b01debd57852.html#ixzz3hmoRs0US

“The sharp rise in the US dollar may slice more than $100bn off dollar-denominated revenues at some of America’s largest multinationals this year, a sum larger than the sales of Nike, McDonald’s and Goldman Sachs combined, according to a Financial Times analysis.”

As mentioned in the article, in the first half of the year, 10 of the largest American multinationals have had their sales reduced by a combined $31bn — including blue-chip companies like Apple, General Motors, IBM, Johnson & Johnson, Amazon and General Electric — and concerns have mounted that a move by the Federal Reserve to lift interest rates later this year will push the dollar higher.
Given our concerns earlier this year about the impact of a strong US $, we began to trim equity positions among large cap domestic holdings, favoring instead small to mid cap companies whose earnings would not be impacted. Furthermore, if the dollar continues to rise versus other currencies, we would suggest that cap weighted, passive portfolios (index funds) will also be stressed in this environment.
Is it the time for active management?
08.03.15
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Tsipras Fiddles While Greece Burns!

Unfortunately in this age of the 30 second soundbite we have a tendency to get bored with stories and events, often long before there has been resolution. This seems to be the case with Greece and it’s inclusion in the the Euro / Eurozone.

Most news reports these days are reporting that there is a “DEAL” already signed and sealed as it pertains to a third bail out for Greece when in fact, negotiations on a potential resolution only began last week.  Furthermore, key players, most notably the IMF, aren’t at the negotiating table, and they likely will stay away unless considerable debt relief is negotiated – not a very likely outcome.

While the negotiations begin, Greece’s economy is plunging further into depression. As reported earlier today, the seasonally adjusted purchasing managers’ index (PMI), fell to 30.2 in July from 46.9 in June. Any reading below 50 suggests contraction in the sector. Furthermore, new business decreased sharply in July, surpassing the previous record set in February 2012, while employment dropped for the fourth straight month in July, and at the steepest pace ever recorded during the 16-plus years of data collection. In addition, production dropped for the seventh straight month in July due to diminished output requirements as new orders plummeted and firms had difficulty in sourcing materials and semi-finished goods for use in the output process.

As if that isn’t bad enough, a quick recalculation of necessary funding for Greece raises the number from $92 billion to around $120 billion, which includes re-capitalizing the Greek banks. According to Mark Grant, the number for the banks is now about $43 billion, and it could be far worse as it appears that loans in default are growing at an alarming rate. Clearly, this will not sit well in Brussels and Berlin, and could bring about even more stringent demands than had been previously thought.

Given the plethora of depressing economic news, it isn’t surprising that the Greek stock market got destroyed today after reopening for the first time in five weeks since the beginning of the country’s capital controls and the announcement of the bailout referendum. The overall Athens Stock Exchange (ASE) index plunged by 22.87% as it opened. That leaves the market at a low not recorded since the middle of 2012.

According to an article in the LA Times, several key participants in the negotiations don’t hold out much hope for Greece’s economy even if a deal is finally completed.  Greece’s own prime minister, Alexis Tsipras, says he doesn’t really “believe in” the new bailout deal he’s hoping to secure for his country. Germany’s top finance official thinks a Greek exit from the euro currency would be better than another costly rescue package. As mentioned previously, even the International Monetary Fund (IMF) doubts a bailout will work without major debt relief from Athens’ creditors, few of which appear willing to offer any.

To hear these key players tell it, the rescue plan they’re currently concocting to save Greece from bankruptcy is either a bad idea or doomed to fail. Yet they’re pressing ahead anyway, despite the questions that their own public statements raise about their commitment to keeping Greece solvent, helping its economy grow and preserving its membership in the Eurozone.

08.03.15
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KCS August 2015 Fireside Chat – “Targeting Future Changes”

We are pleased to share with you the latest edition in the KCS Fireside Chat series.  This article touches on the burgeoning use of target date funds (TDFs).  However, all TDFs aren’t the same, and plan sponsors have an important responsibility to make sure that they stay on top of these funds from both an investment and fiduciary standpoint.  My colleague, Dave Murray, shares his expertise on these important investment vehicles.  Please don’t hesitate to reach out to us if we can provide any assistance.  Enjoy!

Click to access KCSFCAUG15.pdf

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07.30.15
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Future Contributions Into A DB Plan Should Be Considered An Asset Of The Fund

Recently, Mary Williams Walsh, NY Times, penned an article titled,

“Standards Board Struggles With Pension Quagmire”.

The gist of the article had to do with what role did the actuaries and actuarial accounting play in the current state of public pension funding. Many of the actuaries felt that they were pressed by politicians into reverse-engineering their calculations to achieve a predetermined result (contribution cost). “That can’t be good public policy,” said Bradley D. Belt, a former pension regulator, who is now the vice chairman of Orchard Global Capital Group.

According to Ms. Walsh, “he called for additional disclosures by states and cities, including the current value of all pensions promised, calculated with a so-called risk-free discount rate, which means translating the future benefits into today’s dollars with the rate paid on very safe investments, like Treasury bonds.”

Actuaries currently use higher discount rates, which complies with their professional standards but flies in the face of modern asset-pricing theory. Changing their practice to resolve this is one of the most hotly contested proposals in the world of public finance, because it would show the current market value of public pensions and probably make it clear that some places have promised more than they can deliver.

But, if we are going to require DB plans to mark-to-market their fund’s liabilities, inflating future promised benefits, we should also include future contributions as an asset of the plan. Since many, if not most plans, have a legal obligation to fund the plan at an actuarial determined level or through negotiations, these contributions are likely to be made (NJ is one of the exceptions).

When valuing liabilities at “market” without taking into consideration future contributions, plans are artificially lowering their funded ratio, while negatively exacerbating their funded status. Most individuals (tax payers) would not understand the “accounting”, but they would certainly comprehend the negative publicity of a < 50% funded plan.

Most public pension plans derive a healthy percent of their assets through contributions.  Not reflecting these future assets in the funded ratio creates the impression that these funds are not sustainable, which for most public plans is not close to reality.

We need DB plans to be the backbone of the US retirement industry. Only marking to market liabilities without giving a nod to future contributions doesn’t fairly depict the whole story. We can do better.