By: Russ Kamp, CEO, Ryan ALM, Inc.

We, at Ryan ALM, Inc. don’t forecast interest rates, but we certainly focus on them through our work in providing cash flow matching (CFM) portfolios to defined benefit pension plans, endowments, foundations, and just about any entity that has a liability that can be measured, monitored, and managed. We’ve decided to begin to publish a weekly update on changes in the Treasury yields and the curve. I hope that you find this information useful. The post will most likely be published each Monday.

As you can see in the chart above, the week ending October 6th, saw Treasury yields fall from 1-year notes to 30-year bonds. This is a pattern that we’ve witnessed for the past few weeks. However, yields continue to be significantly higher since the beginning of 2026. There remains a fairly high expectation that the Fed, specifically the FOMC, will raise rates one to two more times as they try to tamp down the current inflationary environment.