Tom Petty likely didn’t have U.S. economic growth in mind when he penned his song by the same title in 1989 for his debut album but it more than aptly describes what is happening at this time. According to the Atlanta Federal Reserve Board and their GDPNow forecast, the U.S. economy grew at an annual rate of 0.2% in Q1’17. You might want to think about that for a moment. Yes, the U.S. annual growth is forecast at 0.2%. This is happening at the same time that U.S. equity markets continue to near or exceed all-time records, and while the U.S. Federal Reserve is considering further tightening.
This most recent estimate (revised today) reveals a drop in the growth rate of 0.5% from April 14th’s forecast. However, the Model initially estimated growth at roughly 3.5% in January. Talk about free falling!